Efficient Markets

I had a field day today. Watching the budget live is fun. And that too when you have have the stock markets sites and your internet trading accounts opened in your laptop it is absolutely thrilling...

I was watching the markets live after having read my dose of budget expectations. The market opened lower and stayed under till about 11 AM on weak global cues and may be because of the uncertainty that it faced in the form of budget.. But once the budget speech started, the market was responding almost on a minute to minute basis to the budget provisions.

The moment Mr. Chidambaram announced the increased thrust on education in the form of a 20% increased budget spend stocks like Educomp, Aptech, NIIT were up. Then came the announcements on healthcare and the 15% additional allocation.. up goes DRL, Sparc.. Emphasis on polio and HIV eradication reflected an increase in Panacea Biotech. Waivers of loans availed by small and marginal farmers.. the PSU bank stocks fall. Excise duty reduction.. auto stocks rise. And then comes the killer…the hike in the short term capital gains tax. Then there was no stopping and markets started falling badly.

All of us know about the efficient market hypothesis. But it is during events like these you get to watch it in action. Ok.. enough of the serious stuff. I am not sure how many of you caught the real fun moments in today's budget. I caught at least three instances:

1. When the finance minister was talking about the "One Time Settlement scheme" for the loans availed by the farmers, there was one MP who was opposing it heavily without even hearing what the FM was saying. At one point when the FM announced that he is increasing the loans that are going to be eligible under the scheme, this guy started opposing even more. The speaker then intervened and said to that opposing MP that "You should be happy when the loans to be waived are increased. Then why are you opposing?" Then MP then immediately sat down with a sheepish smile on his face. Thats the state of our beloved leaders..

2. During his speech the FM was at one point extolling LIC and he said "LIC is a jewel amongst the crowns.." I hope he did not mean this..

3. When the FM increased the IT exemption limit for senior citizen from 195 K to 225 K... he had a naughty look at his face and looked at the speaker and said..."I hope there would be no objection now"...