Saturday, December 29, 2007

The Condorcet Paradox

Another cool concept i took away from my negotiations class.... The Condorcet Paradox. Imagine a situation in which people have conflicting preferences. Is it possible to influence other's choices to reach an outcome which you prefer, while at the same time appearing fair and just? The answer is a clear "Yes". Condorcet paradox could come to your rescue. Let me explain with an example.

Suppose we have three candidates, A, B and C, and that there are three voters with preferences as follows (candidates being listed in decreasing order of preference):

Voter 1: A B C
Voter 2: B C A
Voter 3: C A B

Assume you are Voter 1, so you obviously want "A" to win. The condorcet strategy to reach this outcome is as follows:

1. Choose a strategy to eliminate out least preferred candidates.
2. Specifically, for the first step, choose the candidates other than "A".
3. Ask all the members to vote between "B" and "C".
4. Between "B" and "C", both voter 1 (you) and voter 2 prefer "B".
5. So, by a vote of majority "B" will get to stay and "C" is eliminated
6. Now again choose the elimination strategy between "A" and "B".
7. Both voter 1 (you) and voter 3, prefer "A" over "B".
8. So, by a vote of majority "A" will get to stay and "B" is eliminated.

Wow... you got what you wanted and at the same time appeared fair and just by taking majority votes all the time. Cool isn't it?

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

The Annual Circus

I read this post in a blog of an IIM student (Alok Rustagi). Found it really cool and interesting. Read on.... its about placements (I have modified some parts to suit ISB better)

An annual circus that is organized in every business school which attracts the participation of many of the ringmasters from the corporate world to hire some musketeers for performing the same jugglery at their private circuses is branded as summer placements. But a circus cannot be organized without thorough preparation and planning else the ring masters might be displeased with the current lot of monkeys on sale. So let me (a monkey) take you through the preparations which may put a wedding planner to shame.


The preparation starts well in advance for the annual ritual of selling raw uncooked pieces of meat packaged as delicacies to hungry customers. The Alum gyaan flows uninterrupted... Read about this, read about that, read about everything under the sun. Forget about academics, forget about personal life, forget about extracurrics, and some people do forget even sleep, food and other Maslow’s basic needs. We are told to mug up ready responses to clichéd questions like, Why finance/marketing/consulting? We are actually taught to lie about our ambitions, career dreams and even why are we alive. A “tell me about yourself” question becomes so difficult that it requires 100s of hours of coaching from 10s of people, 5 out of these 10 don’t know anything about their tomorrow themselves is a different thing altogether. So this process continues for a long time, we (junior monkeys) are threatened repeatedly by alums (senior monkeys) who have gone through the same process of hire-purchase last year. A perfect example of Knowledge Sharing.

So now the monkeys are ready with impressive CVs to lure the best ringmaster. They all purchase nice costumes for the big day. The first step in the actual sale is coordinated by some internal ringmasters fondly known as PlaCom members, who make sure that every monkey is looking like some imported kangaroo and every third grade ringmaster gives an impression of an expert in his field. The ringmasters come with a jazzy presentation to lure the best monkey. Isn’t it nice, monkeys luring ringmaster and ringmasters luring monkeys!! Nobody knows who the smarter monkey is though. The masters indulge in a self appraisal mode crossing all lines of modesty, telling about the quality of food in the office canteen, the gender ratio, the cleanliness of toilets etc. After this blabbering comes the next part of announcing the names of shortlisted monkeys which suit the requirements of their circus. After all they can’t ask every monkey to jump for the same height. The rejected monkeys go back to their trees, some become sad, some cry, some shout, some drink and some simply go to sleep.


Meanwhile the shortlisted monkeys are taken to a separate chamber for further screening. Monkeys who ate together, smoked together now become enemies; they fight badly for a place in the circus. After this fight some more monkeys are sent home. The remaining monkeys are now interviewed and now it’s the turn of the monkeys to put modesty and humility to shame. Every answer is exaggerated to its limit; a simple thing is blown out of proportions and presented. Glib liars rule and honest monkeys lose. The sequence of lies continues till the ringmaster finally decides on the best monkey to dance in his circus. He goes back happily and I don’t think I need to mention about the joy of the monkey involved. Finally he is proved a superior monkey and may get some attention from the opposite sex. He is proved to be more adept in lying than others, he is proved to be a decent crook, and he can surely pull off a double face more easily than others.

This process of hire-purchase continues till all monkeys get a ringmaster. During this time, monkeys jump from one selection tent to other, changing their career choices in the flight time. They vomit the good things about a circus in front of that particular ringmaster, a sure shot formula for selection. The process is hard and takes a toll on the weaker monkeys; they get disheartened and lose hope, thereby losing their confidence to jump higher. A vicious circle sets in, a less confident monkey is more likely to fall down and a fallen monkey loses more hope. But for the rescue of these monkeys come forward the internal ringmasters. They make sure that finally every monkey gets a place to jump and dance. In the end we have a bunch of happy and gay monkeys who now believe that the world is theirs.

Friday, December 21, 2007

A world of unequals

From today (actually yesterday) the world will not be comprised of equals. Some are more equal than the others. McKinsey shortlists came out yesterday. There were a few happy and lots of sad faces floating in ISB. Lots of back biting as well. War lines are drawn and people take positions. A few swore yesterday that they would never hire McKinsey when they become CEOs. A few said they would shortsell the company's stock (unfortunately it is a partnership firm). Another group resolved that they will make McKinsey realize its mistake of not hiring them by excelling in their careers that would make McKinsey beg them to join their firm (at a future date). Yet another club was formed yesterday - "I hate McK" and memberships to this club sold like hot cakes. And yes, there were a few (a clear minority), who reaffirmed their belief that McK was indeed the best. Curious to know what my stand is? Here you go...

First of all let me clarify that i am on the side of majority - Not by thinking, but by my status. However, my admiration and respect for the organization hasn't come down a bit. McK had explained to us in detail (through a number of interactions) the pains they undertake to evaluate the applications. The things they look for, turn offs, evaluation criteria, the time they spend on the shortlisting process etc... I am sure they would have done a thorough job before coming out with the shortlist. If at the end, your name doesn't figure in the list, it does not mean that the shortlisting process was bad. They knew what they were looking for and they found that in some applications. Yes, they could have made a few mistakes. But that is the trade off between being 100% right and the time pressures. I am sure they are OK with losing a few degree of fairness in the interest of time.

Congratulations for the all the newly crowned kings and queens. And for others, do think hard. Do think why you really wanted consulting? Is it the money or the work? Is it the glamour or your true interest? In marriages you are better off marrying someone who likes you, rather than marrying someone whom you like. Its the same with respect to career. If you do not have forceful answers to some of the questions posted above, may be you will be better off sticking to an area of your strength/ interest. Money will follow. Money has to catch up with skills... at least in most cases.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

2022

I was feeling bored in a class and just to keep myself occupied started thinking about what shapes technology might take in the times to come and how it might impact our daily lives.... Read on

1. Information transmission: Attaching RFID tags to the items we use on a daily basis. Eg. toothpaste, deodorant, soaps, provisions.. whatever. Let these tags transmit the information about the remaining weight/ quantity of these items on a daily basis to the place where we shop. The shop can then deliver these goods directly to our homes based on our agreed reorder points.

2. Early morning health scan: Automatic health monitoring systems attached to toilets. These take our health readings on a daily basis and transmit them to our family doc. The doc can then suggest corrective/ preventive measures based on that.

3. Nutrition/ Diet: Sensors which read our brain cells, outside climate and health readings and fix our ideal diet for the day taking into account nutrition and health requirements, taste preferences etc.

4. Organizers: We should have digital secretaries which track

a. News/ happenings in the world
b. Changes in our wealth position - stocks, mutual funds, bank accounts
c. Schedule for the day - Appointments, reminders..
d. New products of interest in the market etc..
e. Other customized information which we would like to see early in the morning

and present a crux of all these stuff in a single A4 sheet to us which can be read while we are brushing in the morning


5. Mood lifters: Sensors which are able to read my mood and change lighting, TV channels, temperature and music accordingly

6. Time optimization - The digital secretaries (described above) should be able to talk with the digital secretaries of the people with whom i need to interact during the day and should be able to optimize my time. For eg, if need to meet Mr. X today and if Mr. X is planning to visit a local store today and i also intend to visit the same store today, may be it is optimal for both of us to meet at the store rather than visit each other in our offices and waste our times.

7. Energy needs: Carrying multiple chargers is a pain - laptop, mobile, Ipod, PDA.. what not? A simple wireless charging device, which can charge all these devices would be great

8. Pocket convergence - This simply means that a single device should be able to combine the utilities of all the items you generally keep in your pockets - Palmtop, MP3 player, PDA, Mobile. This device should also be in a position to substitute my car keys, home keys & office keys. May be if i send in a message/ signal from this device and upon authentication with a password i should automatically get entry into my car, home etc... I should also be able to use this device
for doing my shopping i.e as a substitute for carrying my debit/ credit cards, loyalty cards etc.

9. Physical Google - I should be in a position to search things in the real world using my PDA. Let me explain. If I want to buy a Allen Solly shirt of a particular colour if the price is less than Rs. 1000, then i should program this into my PDA. The sellers can use a spectrum and transmit their advertising messages through radio waves. If for example a particular seller, lets say Shoppers Stop is indeed having a sale and it meets all my purchase criteria, then my PDA should pick up this radio signal and intimate me, If i happen to pass Shoppers Stop. It should be able to send me a message like "Hi, the light Blue Allen Solly shirt (size 40) which you wanted is available in this Shopper's Stop (100 meters from here... address....) in fourth floor. It is not crowded now, and you will approximately take 8 minutes to complete the shopping".

10. End Of Day health scan - When i come back from work late at night and sink into a refreshing hot water bath, the bathroom should automatically do a complete health scan and give me a crisp report suggesting preventive and and corrective measures which i should adopt before going to bed, so that i get up refreshed the next day... It should also give me a quick summary of the health status of all my family members...

One thing is sure in the digital world. Nothing is impossible... May be i would read this post of mine 15 years from now and wonder, how primitive was I in my thinking...

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Congratulations

The results for the R1 applicants have been declared. I remember the day the results came in last year. I was driving my car when the SMS reached me. My first reaction was that, I was not going to take the offer. Finally i did decide to take up the offer after a lot of soul searching.

Congratulations to all the R1 admits. Enjoy your days now and get ready for a really hectic year ahead. Amidst all your celebrations, spending some time on the following will do a lot of good:

1. Try and see if you can negotiate a good sabbatical package with your existing employer. You may hate your existing job/ boss. But having a back up plan doesn't hurt.

2. Work you best for the rest of time you spend with the organization. People forget all your earlier contributions, but will remember clearly the way you exited. True colours come out at this time. Dont spoil all the hard work and the good name you have earned till now.

3. Dont burn your bridges. Make sure you end your relationship with a positive note with your colleagues/ bosses/ clients/ competitors. Its a small world.

4. Spend some quality time on what you want to get out of ISB and why? Is it a career shift? Better job in existing field? Networking? Knowledge? Platform for launching own venture? Once you are clear on these objectives, have your back plans ready too. Then start charting your strategies

5. Spend some time on revising/ getting ideas on some subjects. Revising quant skills (for the Non IIT/ Engg) and getting some ideas on subjects like finance, economics, accounting (for the IIT/ Engg) will not hurt. You will atleast get an idea of what is waiting for you.


6. Be mentally prepared for a challenging year ahead.

7. Research on various loan options facilitated by ISB. And yes.. remember that you have other options as well. The 3 Fs - Friends, Family and Fools.


8. Meet up with other admits in you area/ city. In my view it really doesn't help much. But you will feel really special and great. And thats good.

And yes dont forget to party hard, enjoy with your family and friends and live a life of a normal human being. Catch up on sleep, movies and whatever things interest you.

Enjoy well and congratulations once again.

Friday, December 7, 2007

Its a small world

I have take a course titled "Negotiation Analysis" this term. This could easily be one of the best courses i have taken at ISB. In our previous class, the professor was explaining that it is very important to build trust before starting to negotiate. One of the easiest ways to build trust is to strike a common chord with the other person. We could either discuss about a common friend, problem, enemy... whatever

To prove the point that it is not difficult to find common links with any person in the world, he took us through a small experiment conducted by "University of Virginia". This university had built an elaborate database of all actors and actresses. You simply type in the names of any two actors or actresses and program searches the database and tells us how they both are linked. Its fun..

Try it out for yourself using the following link

http://oracleofbacon.org/cgi-bin/oracle/movielinks

Another moral of the story - Never burn your bridges.