Lao Tzu’s famous quote “Those who have knowledge don’t predict and those who predict don’t have knowledge” seems most appropriate in this situation. I was just browsing through the Sensex targets given by various experts before the crash began in early January. Am pasting some of these below… have a good laugh.
“We are overweight on India as it is the best bull market in Asia. Our India weightage is at 38%, which is the biggest in thematic portfolio. The long-term Sensex target remains at 40,000." – Chris Wood, CLSA, Global Strategist, October 2007
“We continue to be bullish on the Indian market and have set a BSE SENSEX Target of 23,950 to 25,000 for 2008” – Citigroup, Jan 08
“This puts the Sensex target at around 27,000 mark. The breakout could be as big as 2.618 times the largest leg, leading to a mind boggling figure of 39,000. Even if we keep aside this over-optimistic view, the target of 27,000 could be achieved and that too most probably in the first half of 2008. The daily chart shows one directional wave (A) followed by wave (B), which seems to be a diametric pattern. This pattern has seven legs and has a bow-tie shape” - Milind Karandikar, Leading Technical Analyst, in Business Standard, 7 Jan 2008
“Being an India bull there are reasons such as strong corporate earnings growth (though slower around 20%), and liquidity expected from FIIs & domestic institutions that could propel the Sensex to 24000 by the end of the year (Sensex PE at this level would be around 22.85 considering Sensex EPS of 1050)” - Amar Pandit, Moneycontrol - 2nd Jan 08
“After Sensex 20,000, the market expectations are for 30,000, but I don’t see the Sensex extending beyond 24,000 this year with the benchmark making a decade high this year” - Mukul Pal (Leading technical Analyst), in Business Standard, 7 Jan, 08
“So, in order to find the Sensex targets for ’08, we added these multiples to the highest monthly closing of the Sensex in ’07, i.e. 20286.99. So, the possible targets of the Sensex in the year ’08 at 0.382, 0.618, 1 and 1.618 Fibonacci ratios are 23094.27, 24828.61, 27635.89 and hold your breath, 32177.51, respectively” – Economic Times, 7 Jan 08
“76.4% of leading brokerage firms viewed that the markets are fairly valued while 11.8% each believes that it is overvalued and undervalued, respectively” - CNBC-TV 18 poll, 1 Jan 08
“The move past 15,400 proved beyond doubt that the long-term uptrend has resumed from the June-2006 trough of 8,800. But this move appears to be the final (fifth) part of the long-term move that commenced in May 2003. This final leg can take a few more months to complete during which the Sensex will move between 17,500 and 24,800. We place the outer target for the Sensex in 2008 at 27,145” – Business Line Research, 30 Dec, 07
“Indian stock market would continue its bull run next year with the benchmark index Sensex likely to touch the 24,000-mark by the end of 2008” - Macquire Bank, 30 Dec 07
