The joy of giving..

Of late, I have been taking along a few old clothes in my car. The intention is to give it to someone who is in dire need of it. I come across these people at signals, roadside pavements and many other public places. I have so far been able to give away 2 shirts (over 3 encounters) during the past 10 days or so.

The first one was to a person who was lying on a pedestrian pavement on a busy flyover. I parked my car a few paces ahead, walked back and then handed over a shirt to this guy. This person looked at me, accepted the shirt and then swiftly went back to his world. No words were exchanged..

The second encounter happened when I was at a petrol bunk. There was this poor man, along with his wife. Tattered clothes, hungry eyes and a weak frame. A few people who were walking past, took notice of the couple. A small proportion of this crowd shed their pocket change.. I went to the couple and gave a shirt to the old man. The wife looked more pleased than the husband and folded her hands in gratitude. The husband's eyes acknowledged the act with thanks. No words were exchanged..

The last one was on a hot sunny day. This man was walking on a corner of a road. All he had was a really tattered cloth clad around his waist. His last bath must have been at least a few months ago. He was taking out rice from a dirty plastic cover he had in his hand and was eating. I dreaded to think where must he have picked it up. I ventured out and gave him a shirt, pretty confident that he must be pleased to receive it. But alas, he saw me eye to eye, shook his head and move away. No words were exchanged..

All the three experiences were unique. The first man took the shirt, because someone gave it to him. The woman in the second encounter was in as much need as her husband and did not get anything from me, yet was overjoyed because her husband got something. And finally a man, who had nothing with him, but yet walked away from accepting something which was a basic need.

One thing was common though.. The joy with which you walk away.....

Goodbye 2010

Today I went for the Annual Sports Meet of my school. I studied in this school (Vivekananda Vidyalaya) till my 10th Class and passed out in 1995. Exactly 15 years back.. Time does fly..

While at some level I felt that the whole world has changed, another thought which crossed my mind was that nothing has really changed over these years. I saw some of my teachers. They were just the same, but for what time has done to their physical frames. A little grey hair, that additional ponch and a bespectacled face was all that had changed. But their calm intellect, their intelligent face, their inexhaustible patience and the glint in their eyes, when a old student like me walked up and spoke to them, was just the same.

The students were the same too. That little irreverence to the teachers, the know all attitude, the lazy stroll which they call as "March Past" and the joy in their eyes when they spend a day out with their friends, was just the same.

Probably the world actually never changes. What really changes is our own views, perceptions, attitudes and beliefs. It is this change that makes us see the world differently, each time. It is this change that makes us love what we had hated before and hate what we had loved before. Why is this truth, so difficult to realize?...

My thoughts were distracted, when someone walked near me and asked "Are you Rangarajan?"... That was my classmate in 5th standard. She had completely changed and I found it difficult to recollect her name.

She volunteerd "Jayashree"...

"Of course", I said, with a sheepish smile..

"Nothing has changed in you Ranga.. You are exactly the same, as I remember you from our fifth class".. said Jayashree..

" I am not sure, if I should take this as a compliment"..

"Of course, its a huge compliment. How many of us manage to stay the same?".. said she..

I felt good. What a good way to end the year.

Good bye 2010.

Nature's Response

A beautiful sunrise in Vizag, a picture I clicked during my recent visit to the port town.

While everything about the beach and the sunrise was so beautiful, I wouldn't say the same about everything around the beach. The dirt, the plastic covers, the Pepsi cans and ice-cream wrappers were spoiling the show.

That's when I came near this rocky spot on the beach and thought to myself that perhaps Nature is showing its middle finger to all of us, for all that we do to her...

Tupperware Tales

It was just past lunchtime at office and I had just finished my fill then. As I was tickling my laptop to life, from the brief slumber it might have enjoyed when I was away, I heard a voice from behind.


"Sir... Sir". I craned my neck behind to see a lady, about 40-45 yrs, standing behind the receptionist's desk. Since the receptionist had gone away for lunch, this lady was trying to attract my attention.


The lady, obviously didn't belong to our office. Her attire, poise and probably even the face, did not belong to our pseudo-sophisticated investment banking world.


I quickly took the role of the receptionist and asked what she wanted. She gave me her card and said that she is a distributor of Tupperware products and quickly reeled out her prepared script on how Tupperware is the best thing to have happened to mankind. I took her card and said if someone is interested, I will direct them to her.


I have seen many people react wildly when they get a unsolicited call or if they happen to meet someone like this lady. I will never belong to this camp. I never slam the phone down on calls from credit call agencies, from loan sprayers or from Mahindra Holidays. I never shut the door to eager salesmen who land up at your home on a hot Sunday and disturb your afternoon nap.


Who am I to shout at them? At best my right ends with refusing to accpet their offer. Have I myself not benefitted from kind souls, who had no obligation to hear me but chose to? What do I lose if I respect them as humans?


Next time when one of those hungry salesmen come to your house on a sunny day, offer them water. Their smile will take you a long way..

Misguided Positioning

"Murali Medicals A/C" screamed a banner in front of my eyes. This set me into a trail of thoughts.. Ok another medical shop has come around in the neighborhood. That's ok, there seems to be a place for many more given the number of people I see queuing up in the doctor's clinics. What though puzzled me was the suffix they had added in the banner - "A/C".

I don't remember spending more than two minutes in a medical shop ever. There is a prescription, the guy behind the table is normally well aware of the positions of these medicines and he gathers them deftly. A bill is presented in the end and I walk back with my picks. The only reason I may end up spending more time is either when the shop is crowded or if the guy behind the table is incompetent. (I am assuming that the medical shop guy has mastered the art of deciphering the doctor's handwriting, which usually is a superhuman quality in itself). In both these cases, I am frustrated. Speaking for myself, in both these cases, whether there is a A/C or not, my frustration is not going to reduce.

Given this scenario, whats the use of having an advertisement which tries to build out a differentiation argument, based on a metric which is irrelevant. I understand that an A/C can keep the owner comfortable. Period. However, to try and build an argument of differentiation around it, is non-sensical.

Murali Medicals, is not alone in this madness. I see it all around. Misguided differentiation is actually omnipresent. I see hotels advertising that they are specialists in Tandoori and Chinese, I see airlines positioning themselves as low cost and full service, I see products/ services trying to achieve a position of being cheap and best. In my business school days, I have seen some of my classmates trying desperately to bring out their differentiation by including thoroughly non-sensical information in their CVs.

All these instances are sure-shot recipes of disaster. Firstly, identify and understand things that matter; Build competencies on these relevant metrics and then go ahead and confidently cement your positioning. Rise and shine.

Teachers required

Can it ever get more ridiculuous? This is an actual advertisement published in a local daily seeking candidates to apply for the post of a teacher.

Since the picture is a little blurred, I am pasting the actual text of the ad below:

Required unmarried good looking - below 30 years - Brahmin girls, PG teachers for Physics, English, Tamil and for administration for a reputed school @ chennai. Good salary for the right candidate

Apply with full details with photo to scsmatric.hr.sec@gmail.com

Sir.. are you using a 3G enabled mobile?

Sir.. are you using a 3G enabled mobile?

I said "No".. hiding my surprise at this sudden question and shifting uneasily in my seat.

Why do you ask?

"No sir..My 3G mobile is unable to receive 3G signals while I move around the city. The reception is good only in certain parts of the city. I am hence unable to make video calls"

"There should be some problems with your phone settings. Once you correct it, you should be able to receive 3G singals, if your phone is indeed 3G enabled".. quipped I, slowly feeling the confidence levels rising in myself.

"Sir.. I have checked all the settings, including GPRS packet settings, 3G network settings and Access Point etc.. But somehow it is not working. I even took my handset to the BSNL service centre and they are unable to resolve the issue. Let me anyways go back and read the user manual once again and see if I had missed anything"

"Do that.. by the way what phone do you have?"

"Sir.. I have a Sony Ericcson set. Costed me Rs. 19000. I did not want to buy a Nokia. everyone has a phone sir. There should be some difference between my phone and the usual stuff. Sony Ericsson is class sir. If i go out for some function, people have a seperate respect when i pull out my phone sir. I am very happy with this phone"

"Excellent.. Pls stop here my destination has arrived", Said I and handed him a Rs. 100 note.

"Sir.. petrol prices have increased drastically. Give me atleast 5 rupees extra sir.."

I handed an additional Rs. 10 to the Auto rickshaw driver and walked away with sea of thoughts rushing into my head. India shining? Telecom revolution in India? Impact of inflation on common man? Business opportunity at the bottom of pyramid? Meaning of financial planning at different stratas of the society?....... My trail of thoughts were disturbed by a sudden phone call I received.

"Yes sir, I am on my way. Will be there in your office in another 2 minutes"... I ended the call and put my Rs. 6900 Samsung Corby phone in my pocket, which I had bought the previuos day, after a lot of research..

The great lemon rush

Three major "home-made" lemon drinks have hit the market in recent past. Pepsi's Nimbooz, Coke's Minute Maid Nimbu Pani and Parle Agro's LMN are sweating it out for Numero Uno. A host of reports and marketing blogs tell me that lemon drinks clock the highest growth rate in the non-cola segment. Some analyst reports peg annual Nimbu Pani sales at a whopping 45 million cases (of 5.6 litres each)!!

The battle for nimbu pani is on and the manufacturers with their creative advertising, aggressive marketing and competitive pricing are leaving no stone unturned... Its easy to see why. Nimbu is available in plenty in India, Nimbu Pani is probably one of the easiest to make, has a naturally long life and ofcourse a huge profit margin.

Whats interesting is that, we Indians have been having nimbu pani for a few centuries now. We always knew its natural health benefits and pocket friendly attitude. And yet I am not sure why this segment never took off till now. Pepsi's Troicana has a 100 different flavours (well not exactly... but you get the point right??) on its menu and even boasts of a few which are strictly for the adventures types only (white grape kiwi, pomegranate blueberry!!!). Coke has Maaza and Minute Maid Pulpy Orange to its share. Frooti, Appy, Appy Fizz decorate Parle Agro's showcase and Dabur always had Real Fruit Juice to its credit. Yet it is unfortunate that none of these guys took the poor lemon seriously. No wonder people are always scared of "bad lemons"..

But the little yellow rascal is back with a vengence and is not going to look back again. The uncrowned king of India has now finally taken a lead which is clearly ahead of what many of his kins can hope to achieve in the next decade.

Question to ponder - An opportunity as big and as profitable as this, always existed right in front of our eyes. Yet, it took a Nimbooz to shake the market from its slumber and wake up to this opportunity. Can we spot the next Lemon at least?

Ranking Magic

ISB is ahead of Said, Kellogg, Yale and several others in the Financial Times' Global Business School Rankings 2010. ISB has moved up from 20th rank in 2008 to 15th in 2009 and 12th in 2010.

No mean achievement for sure and I am proud of this achievement by my alma mater. It is for sure going to swing the masses in ISB's favour in the coming years. Nevertheless, do rankings really matter? What is the sanctity of these rankings? And now the bigger question of does ISB really deserve a 12th rank? Globally? Well, I am sure many of friends are going to hate me for even pondering over this question. But the doubting Thomas that I am, made me go through the fine text in the ranking.. Some of the things which I did not understand or things that had a bulb glowing over my head were..

1. Its strange that ISB does not have an Audit Year mentioned in the ranking. FT's website defines "Audit Year" as the year in which KPMG obtained evidence applying specified audit precedures relating to selected survey data. Does having the "Audit Year" as "Nil" mean that an audit was never conducted in ISB? Incidentally only 3 out of the top 100 schools have this problem of not having an Audit Year.

2. The weighted average salary for the 2006 Alums today is US$ 141,291 which is approximately Rs. 66 lakhs. Well, it does sound huge, but what does it really include? Is it comparable with the figures quoted for other B-Schools? I remember, ISB's average salary figure for my batch (2008) and the 2-3 years prior to that were in the range of Rs. 15-19 lakhs. Assuming that the batch of 2006 had an average salary of Rs. 17 lakhs at the time of passout, their salaries must have grown at a CAGR of 40% over the last four years to reach this magical figure of Rs. 66 lakhs. Hmmmm... Did we have the worst financial crisis in this period??


3. Another interesting number.. The salary percentage increase is quoted as 166%. This is defined as the percentage increase in average alumni salary from before the MBA to today as a percentage of the pre-MBA salary. Let us back calculate. A 166% increase would mean that the average pre-MBA salary of the 2006 alumni would be about Rs. 40 lakhs (assuming that their present salary is Rs. 66 lakhs). At least 95% of ISB applicants are Indians. Doesn't a Rs. 40 lakh pre-MBA salary for an undergrad, ring a bell in your head?

I rest my case your honour.. This post is definitely not to demean ISB or its worth. I had the best of my times at ISB and have a really high regard for the school. But I do not understand this ranking business.

Sincere advice to the few who still do read my blogs.. Don't be swayed by external rankings. Do your own research and be convinced.

An idiot and a Messiah

I do not usually venture into writing movie reviews, but two movies which I had watched recently have inspired or rather compelled me to write something about them.

3 Idiots was the first one. A simple story line, an average plot, no major twists and turns and a predictable climax. A recipe for a box office disaster, you would think. But the movie was a treat to watch. It touches a chord not just in your heart, but in your brain too :-) You come out of the movie hall feeling happy and cheerful. And be rest assured that the producers are laughing their way to the bank as well.

The second movie I watched was "Aayirathil Oruvan (One in a thousand)". For the uninitiated, this was one of the most awaited Tamil movies in the recent times. People who fell in love with Karthi Sivakumar, were eagerly awaiting his second flick after his successful debut in Paruthiveeran. As rediff puts it.. the movie was supposed to have it all - War, love, betrayal, ancient history, a forgotten kingdom, magical powers and a ruined city. A perfect recipe for a smash hit at the box office....

And what a disaster it turned out to be.. The movie had nothing but great visuals which were hopelessly tied together with a razor thin plot, confused actors, disgusting violence, crass and lewd dialogues and to top it all a director who probably did not know how to end this mish-mass masala at the end of 3 hours that he just ended up choosing the easy exit by saying, ".... the journey continues." Three years of efforts and Rs. 32 crores down the drain. Interesting that director's production company is aptly named "White Elephants". If you have not yet watched the movie, take my advice and give the money you intended to spend on the movie, to charity. You will feel better.

Can these big budget actors and directors of the South take a leaf from 3 Idiots and make movies which are fun to watch and not come out with something where you will need to visit your doc/ psychiatrist immediately after the movie?

The urban spirit!!

A blogpost after a long time.. And what brings me to table now? A relatively mundane issue - City bus travel.

To travel in a city bus in a metro in peak hours is not for the weak hearted. It requires tremendous guts, will power and an indefatigable attitude. Most buses in the popular routes carry passengers at least 2-3 times their originally intended capacities. With a sizeable proportion of passengers travelling on foot-board, One side of the bus leans towards the ground and keeps you guessing, what makes this marvel defy gravity? A few really aged buses in MTC's fleet make it through this dairy chore of ferrying passengers, purely by god's grace. ... And yet these buses (in Chennai) transport over 45 lakh passengers per day, making over Rs. 2 crores collections per day. A truly commendable feat.

Well.. this post is not to douse you all with my woes against the MTC transport. Through my many travels in these buses, I have observed two things which create inconvenience to other passengers and/ or more accidents.

1. Voluntary foot-board travel by many aspiring youths, probably in a bid to showcase their adventurous spirit and woo eligible partners
2. Left side overtaking

My hypothesis is that both these problems can relatively easily be solved if the MTC officials make a small change in the seating arrangement. For historical reasons, the fairer sex takes the left side seats in the MTC buses. If they are instead made to take the right side seats, the following welcome changes can happen:

1. Dis-incentive to voluntarily travel on foot-board due to absence of the right audience/ platform
2. Reckless left hand overtaking for similar reasons described above would stop, as people would be incentiviced to now overtake from the right hand side..

Anybody listening?

Indianblogger

I have become a guest blogger at www.indianblogger.com and I hope to publish various articles on finance and stock markets.

Here is my first article on "What is a QIP and why is it hot today?" - http://indianblogger.com/2009/06/05/what-is-a-qip-why-is-it-hot-now/

Risk

To laugh is to risk appearing the fool,
To weep is to risk appearing sentimental,
To reach out for another is to risk involvement,
To expose feelings is to risk appearing your true self,
To place your ideas, your dreams before
a crowd is to risk their loss,
To love is to risk not being loved in return,
To live is to risk dying,
To hope is to risk despair,
To try is to risk failure,
But risk must be taken because the
Greatest hazard in life is to risk nothing.
Those who risk nothing do nothing,
Have nothing and are nothing.
They may avoid suffering and sorrow but
They cannot learn, feel, change, grow
Love or live.
Only a person who risks is free.

Author unknown

Markets for Maharajas

I have started another blog - http://marketsformaharajas.blogspot.com

I endeavour to write on various topics in finance and economics in this blog. I have started with some really basic stuff and aim to gradually cover more ground. Check this out when you find some time.

I will of course continue this blog too.

What’s an attractive business?

Who amongst these three is a more inspiring leader? - Abraham Lincoln (AL), Mahatma Gandhi (MG) or Alexander (A)

It’s difficult to say… Let’s briefly see what these leaders are remembered for..

AL: Humility, perseverance and practical leadership. Knew the importance of infrastructure to an economy. Fought against racial discrimination. Leadership during civil war. None of the things he did was rocket science. He did small things.. yet he did them consistently and achieved a number of small victories.....

MG: Truth, simplicity, non violence.. Fight against the British and the Indian independence... Father of an entire nation. A leader who did simple things.. Yet had the mettle to inspire millions to follow him.

A: One of the most successful military commanders of all times. Conquered the entire world. He did not do small things. He did great things that continues to inspire us even centuries after his time..

Ok.. What have these leaders got to do with my original question on what is an attractive business? Here you go...

If we agree that shareholder returns is a reasonable measure on evaluating business attractiveness, there are three important components which constitute shareholder returns:

1. Margins

2. Asset Turnover

3. Leverage

 

That’s because

(Net Profit/ Sales) i.e. Margins X (Sales/ Assets) i.e. Asset Turnover X (Assets/ Equity) i.e. Leverage  = (Net Profits/ Equity) i.e. Shareholders Returns

It’s great if a business scores well on all these three counts. But even if it scores extremely well on one of these counts, it can constitute an attractive business..

High Margin businesses are like Alexander. He did great things. It’s almost impossible for a common man to imitate his deeds. High margin businesses are like that.. They do big ticket deals. Small number of deals but great margins. It’s difficult to imitate them.. Eg. Fashion, Jewelry

High turnover businesses are like Abraham Lincoln. He did not do earth shattering feats. He did small things, down to earth deals.. But he did a 1000 small things, consistently over long periods of time, which put together made him a great leader. High turnover industries are like that. They do small things, yet make up these insignificant deals through volumes.. Eg. Retail stores

High leverage industries are like Mahatma Gandhi. Gandhi gained his fame not because of his own feats. He gained it because he could inspire a million others to follow him which ultimately led to the freedom of an entire nation. Would a strategy of non-violence be exactly effective, if people were not ready to follow him? High leverage industries are like that. They use so little of their own money, get others to lend them money and manage to make a neat profit using the entire pool of cash.. Eg. Financial institutions

DuPont Analysis is a great way to look at businesses. Understanding these levers of business can help us identify and profit from opportunities.

An year since placements

Its almost a year since my placements concluded at ISB. I was browsing my hard disk and going through the list of companies to which I had applied while at ISB.

Here are the statistics:

• Number of companies applied through placements - 37
• Number of shortlists - 11
• Number of offers through campus - 5
• Number of off-campus offers - 3

Here is some interesting stuff on what had happened to these 37 companies over the past one year:

• 18 of these 37 are listed
• The average drop in the share prices of these 18 firms (since the time i had applied) is 62%. The range is 19 to 81%
• Of these 18 firms,
  5 firms have been bailed out
  1 has been taken over
  1 restructured
  1 expected to default on its loan in the next 3 months

Its interesting that i finally took up an offer from IFC,

• To which i had never applied
• Never knew that such a job existed even 2 days before placements
  

And yet IFC is probably one of the best spots to be in, in today's environment (as compared to the 37 companies i had applied)

Moral of story:
Most often we do not recognize if its a blessing or a curse when something hits us. You can well imagine the anxiety i went through when my strike rate at ISB (Shortlists/ Applied) was not that good. There was a point of time during placements, where I had rejected almost every offer I had got and the future looked totally uncertain. Yet in the hindsight, when you are able to connect the dots, it all ends well. Take life as it comes. Have faith - In yourself, in your destiny and in god.

What are we?

What did we do against the Mumbai terrorists attacks:

1. We participated in online polls and declared that India badly needs to take more stringent action against terrorism
2. We participated in Email campaigns and added our names to the lengthy list of citizens seeking action from the government
3. We participated in peace marches
4. We supported tons of websites on the themes of India rocks, Proud to be Indian etc..
5. We lit candles to honour the victims of terrorism
6. We bought T-shirts with whacky slogans supporting the fight against terrorism
7. We watched and may be a few of us participated too in panel discussions
8. We observed a minute of silence in the honour of the terrorist victims
9. Sachin dedicated his century. Amitabh cancelled his dinner with Clinton. Sanjay Dutt lowered his fee. RGV visited the terror ravaged Taj. Bollywood registered 30 movie titles. Saif and Kareena condemned the most heinous terror act and government’s failure to protect the citizens. Aamir Khan wore a black dress on Eid to denounce the terror act.


We have recovered now. We have come back to organizing our lives around two of our most important goals - Watching our bank balances increase and liabilities decrease.

That brings me back to the main question. Are we fundamentally hypocratic or plain helpless?

Not Today

December 10, 2008

8.35 AM: I started from my home and sped towards Chanakyapuri (my office). The moment my car hit the main road I realized that I would have been much better-off had I started even 5 minutes earlier. But that never happens... I hastily laid that thought to rest and drowned myself in loud music to transport myself to a different world. My mood changed and I started appreciating Delhi - Its misty romantic look, clean and broad roads, greenery... Delhi is great. A couple of PYTs (Pretty Young Things) walk past.... My mood elevates even further..

8.50 AM: After some skillful driving, I manage to reach office on time. Those gleaming Volvo cars parked in the office, stole my vision. They always do. I console my mind saying that someday I will own them.

8.55 AM: Reached my desk. Was happy to see my desk as clean as it always used to be. I don't like a cluttered desk. It reflects a cluttered mind. Not sure if a clean desk reflects a clean mind... But I would like to think so.

Started my laptop. It slowly comes to life and after a few minutes of what seemed an herculean effort, it asked me for my password. Without a second thought I punch in those keys... And here comes the first jolt of the day

"Your account has been disabled. Pls contact the administrator"

Wild thoughts run in my head...

What was the last assignment I did? Did I really screw it up that they did not even bother to inform me before firing?

But how can they do it? The notice period serves both ways right?

I thought IFC is a relatively safer island amidst all this mayhem and I never expected this could happen here... And to me..

9.10 AM: Office is still almost empty and there is no one at office who could help... my emotional mind makes its temporary exit and in comes the rational mind..

I make a mental calling plan..If the news is confirmed..

Call your wife first.. assure her that you haven't married a dumbo and that i would be back on track in a short time

Parents next... my mind was racing ahead and thinking of simpler ways to explain the subprime story and the woes of mortgage backed securities.. One good news though, tell them you would be back in Chennai soon..

Make calls to previous bosses with whom i am still in good books..

Calculate the burn rate (cash used up per month) and the bank balance to see maximum period of self sustenance without external assistance

Meanwhile start thinking of those entrepreneurial plans you always had..

Be calm.. if it has happened, it has happened..

9.20 AM: "You were supposed to change your password on Friday and you did not change it. That's why your account has been disabled. Do it now" yelled the IT administrator..

Heaved a sigh of relief.. Not today..

Happy to work now

Scratch your own itch

Now that I caught your attention, let me share a very intersting article I read in Newleaders.com

Getting things right is very hard to do, but is even further complicated when you are trying to solve a problem for someone else. You have to be the customer and the creator at the same moment in order to create something that will truly solve a problem once and for all. When you try to solve problems that aren’t your own, your product ends up either being too complicated or simple, which isn’t the solution.

In a world where most medical records still exist on paper and we use paper voting ballots for the presidential elections, we don’t need another RSS blog syndication widget or another new way to embed music on your MySpace page. Instead, try investing your time into developing products that can help people save time, money, or increase awareness.

Start small, solve your own problems, and don’t quit your day job until you are absolutely certain that it will be a success.

FAIL

Came across an article which crisply summarized what can be expected in an emerging economy during a market turmoil such as the present one.

4 things essentially - FAIL

F: Fear and uncertainty
A: Asset prices (falling)
I: Interest rates (rising)
L: Liquidity crisis

The whole world seems to be crashing... but it is during times like these that great corporations and fortunes are made. If you want to take cues from Warren Buffet, he has been buying American stocks from his personal account in which he previously owned nothing but US government bonds. He says "Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful"